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2010-6-2 00:04
Analysts think they have identified a potentially worrying trend from China for commodities producers: The country has been eating into its commodities reserves.
The result has been a reduction in demand from China in some commodities markets, an absence that has helped weigh on commodities prices. The Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index last week dropped to its lowest level since July, before recouping some of its losses. The index is down 9.9% this year. Given China's size and its voracious consumption, accurately reading stockpile movements is a focus for analysts. They are paying attention for any signs of slowing demand because of China's recent moves to tighten monetary policy to help stop the economy from overheating. But the reporting of storage levels is patchy and inconsistent, making it difficult to assess. Many analysts spend days in remote Chinese outposts, checking stockpile levels. Others analyze satellite photographs to determine storage levels or cultivate on-the-ground sources to dig up information. It all gives a picture, however fragmented, of the strength of demand, and the future strength of commodity prices. 'If you don't have any accurate number to show how much stocks are going up or down, there'll be a big discrepancy' in views, said Sung Yoo, a commodities analyst with J.P. Morgan. The situation has sparked debate among analysts, many of whom are alert to even a slight change in Chinese demand, about whether the reduction in stockpiles is a sign of slowing demand. Some are concerned that manufacturers are responding to fewer orders from customers, preferring to use the materials they already have rather than add to their commodities stocks. Others said Chinese commodities users are being savvy, waiting for market prices to decline further before stepping up buying. As prices reach a bottom, they will return to the market, the reasoning goes. Either way, the lack of Chinese buying likely will weigh on prices over the next few months before any rebound, analysts said. Analysts at Deutsche Bank said price declines for metals are likely, and the third quarter may see 'considerable pressure.' Further policy tightening by China and any potential economic slowdown pose risks to metals such as copper and nickel, the bank said in a note to clients Friday. After a recent field trip to China, analysts at Macquarie Securities said some end users of steel, such as auto makers and white-goods producers, are 'choosing to eat into their own inventory, rather than continue to purchase' on the open market. It is a typical 'buyers' strike' when prices are falling, the analysts wrote. 'Why buy steel today when it'll be cheaper tomorrow?' Since late April, the benchmark hot-rolled flat steel price has fallen as much as 10%, to $600 a metric ton in China, according to the Steel Business Briefing, a firm that tracks steel data. Iron-ore prices dropped 23% in that period, as steel mills waited on the sidelines. But the Macquarie analysts concluded that underlying demand for cars and refrigerators in China remains robust and that manufacturers soon will stop draining their own stockpiles. 'We expect conditions to turn around fairly rapidly,' they wrote. Macquarie estimated China's steel inventory peaked in January, and has since dropped about 15%. Lower steel prices will result in production cuts at mills and help balance the market, they said. The bank estimated steel demand will recover in the fourth quarter. Barclays Capital metals analyst Natalya Naqvi estimated China also has been eating into its stockpiles of lead since March. Imports of the material are down the past two months. China consumes about 40% of the world's lead, which is used primarily in making auto batteries. 'Given the macroeconomic data and auto sales in particular have been strong,' Ms. Naqvi wrote that it may 'reflect some running down of domestic stocks.' Aluminum and zinc also showed a drawdown in stocks. Since mid-April, prices for lead plunged as much as 26%, compared with an 11% decline in the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index. Ms. Naqvi expects China to turn into a net importer of lead again 'towards the end of the year,' giving prices room to rise. China's oil stocks, in particular, have generated divided views. In April, China reported that its crude-oil net imports jumped 33%, to 20.98 million metric tons. Paul Ting, president of Paul Ting Energy Vision, an oil-consultancy firm, estimated Chinese oil demand expanded 13% during the first four months, suggesting there was a small build in oil inventories. J.P. Morgan, however, believes China has been destocking in recent months, citing a Chinese oil-company executive who put the firm's demand growth at 23%. 分析人士认为，他们从中国看到了一种可能令大宗商品生产商担忧的趋势：中国一直在消耗手里现有的大宗商品储备。
这导致中国在一些大宗商品市场上的需求减少，给大宗商品价格带来了压力。 道琼斯UBS商品指数(Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index)上周跌至去年7月以来的最低点，之后收回了部分失地。该指数今年以来累计跌了9.9%。 Color China Photos/Zuma Press一些人担心制造商正在对客户订单的减少作出反应。客户们更喜欢用手里现有的材料，而不是增加大宗商品的储备。其他人则说，中国大宗商品用户很明智，他们在等待市场价格进一步下滑后才增加购买。上图一名工人走在安徽省淮北一家钢铁厂内。鉴于中国的规模和如饥似渴的消费量，准确解读储备走势是分析人士关注的一个焦点。由于中国为避免经济过热，最近推出了紧缩货币政策的举措，分析人士正在密切关注任何需求放缓的迹象。 不过，储备水平的公布却是零散而不一致的，让人很难加以评估。 很多分析人士在中国偏远地区呆了数天时间，检查储备水平。其他人则分析卫星照片来确定储备水平，或培养当地信息源以挖掘信息。 这些方法都给出了需求强劲程度和大宗商品价格未来强劲水平的大致图景，无论有多零散。 摩根大通(J.P. Morgan)大宗商品分析师Sung Yoo说，如果你没有可以显示储备上升或下降幅度的准确数字，各人的看法就会出现巨大的差异。 这种情况引发分析人士围绕着储备下降是否表明需求放缓的问题展开了争论，其中很多人甚至对中国需求的微小变动都警惕不已。 一些人担心制造商正在对客户订单的减少作出反应。客户们更喜欢用手里现有的材料，而不是增加大宗商品的储备。 其他人则说，中国大宗商品用户很明智，他们在等待市场价格进一步下滑后才增加购买。这些人的理由是，随着价格触底，用户将返回市场。 分析人士说，无论怎样，中国购买量的减少可能会在未来几个月给价格带来压力，然后才会反弹。 德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)分析师说，金属价格很可能会下滑，三季度可能会出现相当大的压力。 该行上周五在客户报告中说，中国进一步的政策紧缩和任何可能的经济放缓都会给铜和镍等金属带来风险。 麦格理证券股份有限公司(Macquarie Securities)分析师近期前往中国实地考察之后说，汽车制造商和家用电器生产商等部分最终用钢企业已选择消耗自己的库存，而不是继续在公开市场上购买新的钢材。 分析师写道，这是典型的价格下跌时期的“罢买”现象。既然明天会更便宜，为什么要在今天买？ 跟踪钢铁数据的公司──SBB环球钢讯(Steel Business Briefing)数据显示，自4月底至今，中国市场热轧扁钢的基准价已下跌了多达10%，至每公吨600美元。同期，由于炼钢厂保持观望，铁矿石价格下跌23%。 但麦格理证券公司的分析师推断中国对汽车和冰箱的内在需求依然强劲，因此各生产商将很快停止消耗自己的库存。 他们写道，我们预计情况将很快逆转。麦格理证券公司估计中国的钢铁库存在1月份达到顶峰，此后下降了约15%。 他们说，钢价下降将导致钢厂减产并有助于平衡市场。他们估计第四季度钢铁需求将会恢复。 巴克莱公司(Barclays Capital)金属分析师纳克维(Natalya Naqvi)估计中国自3月起也一直在消耗铅的库存。 过去两个月，中国减少了对这种原料的进口。 中国的铅消耗量约占全球的40%，主要用于生产汽车电池。 纳克维写道，鉴于宏观经济数据特别是汽车销售强劲，中国减少铅原料进口或许反映出它正在部分消耗国内库存。铝和锌的库存也有所下降。 自4月中旬起，铅价暴跌高达26%，而道琼斯-UBS商品指数(The Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index)仅下跌11%。 纳克维预计中国将在年底前再次变成铅的净进口国，给铅价提供了上涨的空间。 然而在中国石油库存方面，业界出现了不同的观点。 4月，中国报告其原油净进口跃升33%，至2,098万公吨。 石油咨询公司Paul Ting Energy Vision的总裁Paul Ting估计，今年前四个月中国石油需求增长13%，预示着中国的石油库存有小幅增加。 然而，摩根大通(J.P. Morgan)认为中国近几个月一直在缩减库存，并引述中国石油公司高管的话称该公司的石油需求增幅达23%。 |