【英语中国】本田罢工事件凸显中国工人影响力增强

Workers pushing for higher wages at one of Honda Motor's coastal Chinese plants could well be setting a trend.

The dynamics of China's economic development are moving inexorably in favor of the country's workers. China's recent economic growth has mostly favored owners of capital, but demographic trends mean labor shortages are set to grow, tipping the income equation in labor's favor.

This should have some beneficial effects, rebalancing China's export-dependent economy. But the transition won't be easy, and China could well see more episodes like the strike at Honda.

The trend has been discernible for a while, as the effects of an aging population and China's one-child policy kick in. In the past 10 years, the population of 20- to 39-year-olds -- from which most manufacturing labor is drawn -- has fallen 22%, Merrill Lynch says.

Making it more difficult for coastal manufacturers to attract workers is that Beijing's economic stimulus efforts have favored the country's middle to western regions, drawing labor away from the east coast. High housing prices in major eastern cities also discourage potential migrants from moving without the promise of adequate reward.

Many economists see the upward pressure on wages as a good thing. Higher incomes for households could help their consumption take a greater share of the economy. If companies respond by moving their manufacturing bases inland -- as they have started to do -- this could also help reduce regional disparities in economic development.

But policy makers will have to prove adaptable. too. Labor shortages will be more easily addressed if China relaxes its policies on internal migration. The current hukou system discriminates against workers moving from rural to urban areas. Steps to provide more affordable urban housing would also help cities attract more workers.

Most of all, perhaps, China's leaders will have to become more tolerant of institutions, such as labor unions, which can maintain a dialogue about the wishes of workers without getting bogged down in the kind of unrest now seen at Honda.

Honda's problems are a signal to Beijing that it is going to have to become more flexible.

本田汽车(Honda Motor)中国沿海一工厂内的工人争取加薪，很有可能是在引燃一种趋势。

中国经济发展过程中的力量平衡正不可阻挡地偏向这个国家的工人。中国的经济增长近来主要对资本所有者有利，但由于人口结构的变化，劳动力短缺的情况势必加剧，从而把收入天平上的砝码拨向劳动者一边。

通过重新平衡依赖于出口的中国经济，这应当会起到一些有益的作用。但转型过程不会一帆风顺，而像本田罢工这样的事件很有可能还会继续上演。

随着人口老龄化和中国独生子女政策显现影响，上述趋势已经在一段时间里明析可辩。美林公司(Merrill Lynch)说，在过去10年，作为制造业劳动力主要来源的20到39岁人口已经减少了22%。

中国政府的经济刺激措施偏重于中西部地区，从东部沿海地区吸走劳动力，使得沿海制造企业更难招到工人。面对东部大城市高企的房价，本来有可能过来打工的人在看不到足够收入期许的情况下也不愿意过来。

很多经济学者都把工资的上升压力看作是一件好事。家庭收入增加，有助于提高家庭消费在经济体中的比重。如果企业为解决问题而把制造基地搬往内陆（它们已经开始这么做了），这还可以缩减经济发展过程中的区域不平衡。

但政策制定者也要展示出自己的与时俱进能力。如果中国放松它的国内迁徙政策，劳动力短缺的问题处理起来会更加容易。当前的户口制度对从农村迁徙到城市的工人存在歧视。如果采取措施提供价格更可承受的市区住房，也会有助于各个城市吸引更多的工人。

最重要的，或许是中国领导人将不得不对工会等组织变得更加宽容。这些组织可以维持一个对话管道，让工人的愿望得到表达，而不是以本田现在发生的那种混乱的形式爆发。

本田遇到的问题是向北京发出的一个信号，告诉它要提高自己的灵活性。