【英语中国】分析：中国经济将再次“硬着陆”？

Only a few weeks ago, the main worry among Chinese policymakers was the risk the economy might overheat. Now the talk has shifted to the possibility of a hard landing, writes Geoff Dyer in Beijing and Patti Waldmeir.

The mood has changed because of a flurry of government policies introduced since mid-April to cool a red-hot property market and weed out speculative buyers.

The move has awakened bad memories. The last time the government tried to control soaring house prices, in late 2007, it helped to prompt a sharp slump in the economy. The Chinese stock market has dropped by about 20 per cent since mid-April on fears of a repeat performance, especially as the government also tries to slow the pace of infrastructure investment projects, and economists are beginning to scale back their 2010 growth forecasts.

The policies, including higher mortgage rates and increased deposits for second homes, have brought the housing market to a near standstill – sales of flats fell by 52 per cent in Beijing in the first two weeks of May compared with April, by 64 per cent in Shanghai and by 79 per cent in Nanjing, according to the consultancy Soufun.

Analysts say, however, it could be several months before the trend in house prices is clear, even if many are expecting a correction.

If activity in China does slump, it will be more quickly apparent in demand for steel and copper, which are widely used in construction. There are already some signs of an impact from the housing measures – steel prices in China have fallen about 7.5 per cent since April and copper prices are down.

But steel prices have fallen “because of a perceived threat to steel demand, not any actual slowdown in demand”, said Rafael Halpin of Steel Business Briefing, a steel consultancy in Shanghai.

Imports of copper fell in April by 8 per cent from a month earlier. However,

Wen Meiyuan, an analyst with China Merchants Futures, said the decline reflected overstocking in March rather than any fall in demand. Analysts said the market was reacting to worries about an economic slowdown more than any actual slowdown itself.

While investors remain nervous about the impact of a slower property market, most economists think the policy moves are part of a necessary cooling off rather than the start of a hard landing. “The economy is moving away from overheating, but it is still growing above trend,” said Bart van Ark, chief economist at the Conference Board. “There are still inflationary pressures but they are moderating.”

短短几周前，中国政策制定者圈子中的主要忧虑还是经济可能过热的风险。现在，人们谈论更多的则是“硬着陆”的可能性。

情绪之所以变化，是因为中国政府自4月中旬以来出台了一系列政策，以冷却灼热的房地产市场和剔除投机买家。

这些措施唤醒了一些不愉快的记忆。上一次中国政府试图控制飙升的楼价是在2007年年尾，那次，相关政策推动引发了整体经济急剧减速。自4月中旬以来，中国股市已下跌大约20%，主因是人们担心同样的情形重演，尤其是政府同时还在试图减缓基建投资项目的步伐。经济学家们正开始下调他们对2010年中国经济增长的预测。

这一次，相关政策（包括提高针对第二套住房的抵押贷款利率和首付比例）已使楼市趋近停滞。根据咨询公司搜房网(Soufun)发布的数据，5月份头两周，北京的住宅销量比4月份减少52%，上海减少64%，南京减少79%。

不过，分析师们表示，楼价的趋势可能要过几个月才能明朗，即便许多人预期会出现回调。

如果中国楼市的活动确实陷入低迷，此种局面将更快体现于钢和铜的需求，因为这两种材料大量用于建设工程。已经有一些迹象表明，旨在抑制楼市的措施产生了影响：自4月以来，中国的钢价下跌了大约7.5%，铜价也有所下跌。

但是，上海咨询公司环球钢讯(SBB)的分析师拉斐尔·哈尔平(Rafael Halpin)表示，钢价下跌是“是因为人们观感中的钢材需求受到威胁，而非需求出现任何实际的减速。”

4月份，中国的铜进口量与前一个月相比减少了8%。不过，招商期货(China Merchants Futures)分析师温美苑表示，这种减少反映出3月份进货过多，而非需求有任何下降。分析师们表示，市场在更大程度上在对有关经济减速的担忧（而非实际减速本身）做出反应。

尽管投资者对楼市减速的影响仍感到紧张，但多数经济学家认为，中国的政策措施是必要的降温战略的一部分，而非一场“硬着陆”的开始。“中国经济正摆脱过热，但仍在趋势线上方增长，”世界大企业联合会(Conference Board)的首席经济学家范阿克(Bart van Ark)表示。“目前仍有一些通胀压力，但这些压力正在趋缓。”

译者/和风