【英语中国】中国需求加弱势欧元提振宝马奔驰盈利前景

Europe might be embroiled by economic woes following the costly bailout of Greece and fears about other debt-squeezed countries in the bloc, but the currency's weakness spurs expectations that Mercedes-Benz and BMW will fairly soon be reaping record profit margins again - just months after emerging from the worst industry downturn in decades.

Daimler's core Mercedes-Benz division targets a 10% return-on-sales in the second-half of 2012 and through 2013, which not too long ago seemed wildly optimistic amid concerns that a crucial customer group -- rich Anglo-Saxon car buyers opting for souped-up, top-of-the line vehicles -- might not return anytime soon after being battered by the financial crisis. BMW, the world's best-selling premium automaker ahead of the Mercedes-Benz brand, just recently reiterated its target of between 8% and 10% return on sales for its auto operations in 2012.

There is no lack of headwinds for premium automakers these days. Consumers are shifting increasingly towards smaller, less profitable vehicles and hefty investments for green technology to comply with tightening emission regulations worldwide.

But China is coming to the rescue by actively transforming itself into the new economic center of gravity. The suspicious silence about intellectual property concerns and technology transfer to China -- in the past a rather popular issue among Western automakers -- suggests the industry has realized it has little choice other than joining the party (even if this means bringing along some goodies in the form of state-of-the-art technology).

Backed by wide-ranging economic stimulus programs, the number of affluent Chinese car buyers is skyrocketing. Profit margins there are healthy compared to other large markets as Chinese customers tend to pay in cash, which reduces the risks related to extensive leasing business.

Adding to the excitement is the weaker euro compared to the U.S. dollar and to the Chinese yuan, which is pegged to the dollar. Both Mercedes and BMW traditionally have significant exposure to currency fluctuations as they produce the vast majority of cars and components in the euro zone, but a big chunk of sales are in dollars.

So the combination of a recovering U.S. market and booming demand in China not only results in a huge tailwind in terms of sales volumes, but the favorable currency development provides an additional boost for profit expectations.

The extremely conservative earnings guidance policy in recent years suggests that both Daimler and BMW might surpass their full-year targets, just one year after looking into the abyss.

由于对希腊实施了代价不菲的救援，其他身负沉重债务的成员国也让人心忧，欧元区可能已经陷入了经济危机。但考虑到欧元的疲软，人们预计梅赛德斯-奔驰(Mercedes-Benz)和宝马(BMW)将会很快再次收获创纪录的利润率──离它们摆脱数十年来最严重的行业惨景仅隔了几个月。

Getty Images4月24日的北京车展上，一名车模站在全球首发的奔驰E300旁戴姆勒(Daimler)核心部门梅赛德斯-奔驰在2012年下半年和2013年全年的销售利润率目标是10%。不久以前，人们还觉得这个目标太过乐观，因为偏爱大马力高端汽车的英美富人是一个至关重要的客户群体，而他们在受到金融危机打击后可能不会很快复元。宝马是世界畅销豪车生产商，销量位列梅赛德斯-奔驰之前，它刚刚重申，汽车部门2012年的销售利润率目标是8%到10%。

当今豪华汽车生产商绝非没有阻力。消费者正越来越多地转向排量更小、利润率更低的车型，并大笔投资于绿色科技，以遵守全世界越来越紧的排放监管规则。

但中国正积极地转型成为新的经济重心，因而成了豪华汽车厂商的救星。在过去，知识产权担忧和对华技术转让曾是西方汽车生产商当中一个相当普遍的话题，但现在它们却让人狐疑地不着一言，这说明整个行业已经认识到，除了加入游戏它们也别无他法，哪怕这意味着要奉献出一些尖端科技。

受一系列经济刺激计划支撑，中国富裕购车人的数量正在急剧增加。由于中国客户往往是现金付款，降低了大量租赁业务存在的风险，所以和其他大型市场比起来，中国市场的利润率是很不错的。

除此以外，欧元兑美元、兑人民币（同美元挂钩）汇率的疲软，也让豪华汽车生产商们兴奋不已。梅赛德斯和宝马传统上极易受到汇率波动影响，因为它们绝大多数汽车和零部件都在欧元区生产，而销售收入中又有相当大一部分是美元。

所以，除了美国市场复苏、中国需求的快速增长对销售量形成重大利好之外，有利的汇率变动也对它们的盈利预期带来了进一步的提振。

近几年极端保守的盈利指导政策，意味着戴姆勒和宝马都有可能超过它们的全年目标，而濒临深渊的处境才刚刚过去一年。