【英语中国】中国银行业融资蓄势待发

China's government has begun approving a series of multibillion-dollar fund raisings by its banks despite souring market conditions, and more lenders are lining up to tap investors for capital.

On Friday, the securities regulator approved a proposal by Bank of Communications Co., China's fifth-largest bank by assets, to raise as much as 42 billion yuan ($6.15 billion) in a rights issue in Shanghai and Hong Kong. On Monday, the regulator gave the go-ahead to Bank of China Ltd. to sell 40 billion yuan of bonds convertible into Shanghai-listed shares.

Neither bank has announced a timeline for their offerings, but the approvals mean they could take place in the next couple of months.

As more lenders put forth capital-raising plans, concerns are rising that there may more supply than demand. Banks have announced plans to raise more than $70 billion -- including an expected initial public offering by Agricultural Bank of China Ltd. that could be as large as $30 billion -- in an effort to replenish the capital levels they ran down during last year's loan binge aimed at support the economy.

But China's stock markets already are spooked by Europe's sovereign-debt crisis and investor concerns that Beijing's efforts to cool a property bubble may harm economic growth. On Friday, the Shanghai Composite Index ended down 0.01%, at 2655.77, down about 19% this year. Shanghai-listed shares of Bank of Communications have fallen 25% this year, while shares of Bank of China are down about 10%.

An influx of new shares and debt could further push down share prices. And if banks aren't able to raise capital, it could hinder their ability to churn out credit to keep the economy humming.

'I think the market will have trouble handling so much new supply' of bank issuance, said Dorris Chen, a banking analyst with BNP Paribas in Shanghai. Ms. Chen said bankers are going to have to choose between the need to raise funds and accepting that they will have to sell shares at lower prices than they planned. 'The early birds certainly have an advantage,' she said.

Analysts said they expect regulators to delay approval of some banks' fund-raising plans if they think the market is saturated, but the backlog of banks looking to raise funds continues to grow. On Friday, Bank of Shanghai Co. announced plans for an IPO that could raise more than $3.1 billion. And on Thursday, Bank of Beijing Co., another Chinese city lender, said its shareholders approved plans to sell $4.4 billion yuan of bonds.

Given backlog, analysts said Bank of Shanghai -- in which HSBC Holdings PLC and International Finance Corp. own stakes -- is unlikely to list this year. That could make things difficult for the Chinese bank, which said in a statement that it faces a capital shortfall of more than $5.1 billion yuan between 2010 and 2012. It also said it will issue $2.2 billion of subordinated debt between 2010 and 2012.

Much of the pressure to raise capital has come from the China Banking Regulatory Commission, which wants lenders to bolster their balance sheets against a potential increase in bad loans after last year's credit surge.

Bank of Communications' core capital adequacy ratio -- the amount of equity and retained earnings banks are required to hold against assets -- is the lowest of China's publicly traded major banks, ending the third quarter at 8.12%, close to the minimum 8% required by the banking regulator. With China's banks expected to issue about $1.1 trillion in new loans this year, less than the $1.4 trillion last year but still huge by historical standards, that ratio is set to slide further.

尽管市场环境每况愈下，但中国政府已开始批准一系列银行进行大规模融资，另外还有更多银行在排队等候从投资者手中筹得资本。

上周五，中国证券监督管理委员会批准交通银行(Bank of Communications Co.)的申请，允许它在上海和香港通过配股筹资不超过人民币420亿元（合61.5亿美元）。按资产规模计算，交通银行是中国第五大银行。上周一，证监会批准中国银行(Bank of China Ltd.)发行400亿元A股可转债。

两家银行都没有宣布发行时间表，但既已获批，意味着接下来几个月之内可能就会进行。

随着越来越多的银行推出融资计划，人们愈加担心出现供过于求的状况。为补充去年为支撑经济增长大举放贷而下降的资本金水平，各银行已宣布规模总计超过700亿美元的融资方案，其中包括预料中的中国农业银行(Agricultural Bank of China Ltd.)首次公开募股(IPO)，最高可能融资300亿美元。

但中国股市已经受到欧洲主权债务危机的惊吓，而投资者担心政府采取的楼市降温措施可能损害经济增长，也对股市造成了冲击。上周五，上证综合指数收于2655.77点，当天跌0.01%，年初以来下跌约19%。交通银行A股降幅在今年以来已达25%，中国银行A股跌幅约为10%。

新股新债涌入，可能进一步压低股价。而如果不能融资，银行发放信贷、保持经济运转的能力可能又会受到损害。

巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)驻上海的银行业分析师陈皖明(Dorris Chen)说，我认为市场应付这么多新增供给会有麻烦。她说，银行只能在进行融资和接受低于计划的股票出售价格之间做出选择。她说，越早行动，无疑就越有优势。

分析人士预计，如果监管层认为市场已经饱和，他们将会推迟批准一些银行的融资方案，但寻求融资的后备军队伍仍在壮大。上周五，上海银行(Bank of Shanghai Co.)宣布了融资规模可能超过31亿美元的IPO计划。上周四，另一家城市商业银行北京银行(Bank of Beijing Co.)说，其股东已经批准了出售44亿美元债券的方案。

汇丰控股有限公司(HSBC Holdings PLC)和国际金融公司(International Finance Corp.)在上海银行均持有股份。分析人士说，考虑到这么多银行等着融资，上海银行在今年上市的可能性不大，这种情况可能会使它的日子不太好过。上海银行在一份声明中说，在2010年到2012年期间，它面临着超过人民币51亿元的资本金缺口。这家银行还说，它将在2010年到2012年间发行22亿美元的次级债。

银行不得不融资的压力，有很大一部分来自中国银行业监督管理委员会。银监会希望银行在经历去年的信贷狂潮过后夯实财务实力，防备不良贷款增加。

交通银行的核心资本充足率（银行根据要求持有的股权和留存利润数量占总资产的比例）在中国主要上市银行中是最低的，去年第三季度结束时为8.12%，接近银监会规定的下限8%。预计中国银行业将在今年发放约1.1万亿美元的新增贷款，低于去年的1.4万亿美元，但以历史标准来衡量依然是一个庞大的数字。在这种情况下，交通银行的核心资本充足率极有可能进一步下滑。