【英语中国】Lex专栏：中国工人的工资议价能力增强

To the long list of negative effects of China's liquidity-fuelled recovery – high food price inflation, runaway property prices – add another: increasingly militant workers. Honda's closure of all four of its assembly plants in China, after almost 2,000 staff at a wholly-owned parts unit downed tools in a dispute over pay, is a symptom of a shift in bargaining power.

At least in this case, workers are holding employers to ransom because they can. Honda's commitment to the world's biggest car market is in no doubt: it sold almost 40 per cent more cars in China in the first four months of this year than it did a year earlier. Earlier this week, the company said it planned to raise its local production capacity by a third by the second half of 2012, while introducing two new models. In that context, the chances of a higher settlement look good, regardless of whether the workers – currently paid about $220 a month – have a strong case for a raise. It is true that national income, for the time being, is rising faster than individual incomes. While real output rose almost 12 per cent in the first quarter, urban and rural incomes increased by less than 10 per cent.

In the unlikely event that employers refuse to budge, moreover, employees have options. This is a reasonably tight labour market: nationwide, unemployment of 4 per cent is where it held between September 2004 and June 2006, during a period of global prosperity. In export hubs such as Guangdong – home to Honda's parts plant – wage pressure has become particularly intense as migrants from the interiors return or stay home, where fiscal stimulus has spurred jobs growth. The likes of Honda, in short, may find workers have almost nothing to lose.

中国由流动性推动的经济复苏存在很多负面影响，比如食品价格高涨、房价飙升等，现在又多了一个：工人的斗争性越来越强。因工资纠纷，本田(Honda)在华独资的一家零部件工厂近2000名工人罢工，导致本田所有4家在华整车厂停产，这标志着劳资双方的议价能力正发生变化。

至少在这起事件中，工人们勒住了雇主的脖子，因为他们有条件这样做。本田在这个全球最大汽车市场的介入之深是毫无疑问的：在今年头4个月，它在中国的销量同比增长了近40%。本周初，该公司表示，它计划到2012年下半年时，将在华产能提高三分之一，并将推出两款新车型。在这种背景下，罢工以工人们加薪了结的机会看上去是很大的，不论工人们（目前每月挣220美元左右）是否有充足的加薪理由。无可否认的是，目前中国的国民收入比个人收入增长得更快：在第一季度，中国实际产出增长近12%，而城乡居民收入仅增长不到10%。

此外，万一雇主拒绝让步，工人们也有其它选择。中国的劳动力市场相当紧张：目前全国的失业率为4%，与2004年9月至2006年6月全球繁荣时期的数字相当。在广东等出口中心（罢工的本田零部件厂就在广东），工资压力尤为强大，来自内陆的农民工正在返乡或干脆不再出来打工——政府的财政刺激政策正推动他们家乡的就业增长。总之，本田之类的企业可能会发现，工人们几乎没什么可损失的。

Lex专栏是由FT评论家联合撰写的短评，对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析

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