【英语中国】短线观点:中国带动世界V字复苏？

Markets think they can see a victory sign coming from China. They believe China has somehow executed a “V-shaped” recovery from its slowdown – and that this justifies buying stocks elsewhere.

Yesterday's CLSA purchasing managers index for China, like the official survey last week, showed a sharp rise to bring Chinese manufacturing back into expansion mode. This is the fifth gain in succession and the first reading showing an expansion in nine months. On a graph, it is a perfect V-shape. The post-Lehman recovery dates from the Chinese government's stimulus package in November.

New orders rose after eight months of falls, mostly due to domestic demand. Foreign orders dropped, but by the lowest amount in eight months.

Data from other countries suggest that they are beginning to export again. South Korea, for which China is a vital trading partner, has seen exports rise for three months in a row. April's exports were up 44 per cent from a horrific low in January. Yesterday brought news that exports from Brazil, a supplier of commodities to China, were all rising.

All of this has had a dramatic effect on stocks. Since they reached their nadir last autumn, Brazil's Bovespa index has risen 82.9 per cent, South Korea's Kospi is up 71.7 per cent, and the Shanghai Composite itself is up 50.2 per cent.

Does this make sense? China's recovery from what looked like the risk of outright contraction only months ago is so swift as to prompt analysts to question the data. China's emphasis on government spending, rather than getting consumers to stop saving, does not help deal with longer-term global imbalances.

But stocks at one point priced in a headlong fall into the abyss. That fall does seem to have been averted. Emerging market shares fell far more than in developed markets. So there is justification for a rebound.

市场认为，它们看到了来自中国的胜利迹象。它们相信，中国已设法摆脱经济减缓，实现了V字形复苏，而这也为购买其它地方的股票提供了理由。

昨日公布的里昂证券(CLSA)中国采购经理人指数，与上周的官方调查一样，显示大幅上升，表明中国制造活动重新进入扩张状态。这是该指数连续第5次上升，而且是9个月来首次显示扩张状态。从图表看，这是一个完美的V字形。这一在雷曼(Lehman)破产后开始的复苏过程，可追溯到去年11月中国政府出台刺激方案之时。

新订单在连续8个月下降后有所回升，主要是由于国内需求的推动。海外订单有所下降，但降幅是8个月来最小的。

来自其它国家的数据似乎显示，它们又开始出口了。韩国的出口已连续3个月上升，4月份出口比1月份的可怕低点上升了44%。对韩国来说，中国是一个至关重要的贸易伙伴。昨日还有消息称，巴西的出口也全面上升。巴西是中国的大宗商品重要供应来源之一。

这些动态对股市产生了戏剧性影响。自去年秋季达到低谷以来，巴西Bovespa股指已大涨82.9%，韩国Kospi股指大涨71.7%，中国的上证综指也大涨了50.2%。

这一切都说得通吗？仅仅在几个月前，中国看上去还面临经济出现绝对值萎缩的风险，该国的复苏如此之迅速，以至于分析师们开始质疑相关数据。中国对政府支出的依赖，而非让消费者停止储蓄，无助于纠正更长期的全球失衡。

但在某个时候，股价计入了经济直落深渊的局面。那种坠落看起来确实已得到避免。新兴市场股价跌幅远远超过发达市场。因此，反弹也是有理由的。

译者/和风