【英语中国】去中国印度买股票？

It is tempting to believe that there is a buying opportunity in Asian stocks. After the savage sell-offs in China and India so far this year, they are certainly better value than they were. Such sentiment probably lay behind yesterday's big bounce for Indian stocks.However, a nasty combination of inflation and steep valuations suggests their stock markets have not yet come to rest.

Inflation is an important factor in price/earnings ratios. For years, traders used the “Rule of 20” as a benchmark. This held that the market p/e should be equal to 20 minus the inflation rate. This broke down in the 1990s when p/e ratios exceeded 20, but the idea that higher inflation should lower the multiple paid for companies' earnings remains valid.

Inflation is back as the market's greatest fear. That fear largely emanates from China and India. Official data show headline inflation of almost 8 per cent in both countries. That is more than double the average for the G7.

Looking at their earnings multiples, a more worrying picture emerges. The “Chindia” stocks boom was based on multiple expansion rather than any great increase in earnings.

When it peaked at the beginning of this year, using MSCI data, India's multiple was almost double that of the All Country-World index. China was only slightly behind, peaking at more than 90 per cent. Three years ago, both traded for less than the average world multiple.

Even after China's stocks have dropped by a half and India's by a quarter, their multiples remain 23 per cent and 41 per cent above the world's average p/e ratio.

If inflation is a concern, logic suggests that p/e ratios for Chindia, and much of the rest of Asia outside Japan, should stabilise only when they are some way below the global average.

That implies that they have further to fall.

有一种想法颇具吸引力：亚洲股市目前存在一个买入机会。经过今年以来的大举抛售，中国和印度股市现在肯定比以前更加物有所值。这种思想可能是印度股市昨日大幅反弹背后的原因。

然而，高企的通胀率加上偏高的估值，意味着两国股市还没有达到趋稳的水平。



通货膨胀是影响市盈率的一个关键因素。多年来，交易员们把“20倍法则”当作一个准绳。这一法则认为，股市的市盈率应该等于20减去通胀率。上世纪90年代，随着市盈率超过20倍，这一法则被打破。不过，随着通胀上扬，市盈率理应下降的理论依然成立。

作为市场最害怕的因素，通货膨胀正在卷土重来。而这种担心主要源自中国和印度。官方数据显示，两国的总体通胀率均已接近8%，是七大工业国(G7)平均水平的两倍多。

看看他们股市的市盈率，情况更加不容乐观。“龙象”股市繁荣来自于市盈率的上升，而非企业收益的大幅增加。

根据摩根士丹利资本国际(MSCI)的数据，当印度股市在今年初见顶的时候，其市盈率几乎是全球指数的两倍。中国仅次于此，其历史高点的市盈率比全球指数高出90%。3年前，两国股市的市盈率均低于全球平均水平。



即使在中国股市下跌一半、印度股市下跌四分之一之后，他们的市盈率依然分别比全球平均水平高出23%和41%。

如果考虑到通胀因素，逻辑判断就是：对于中国、印度乃至日本以外的多数亚洲国家而言，他们的市盈率只有明显跌至全球平均水平以下，才会趋稳。

这表明，他们仍有下跌空间。

译者/苏客