【英语中国】短线观点：全球股市是否与中国“脱钩”

Last week, world stock markets staged a brief rally on hopes from China. This week, they have rallied in spite of China.

The welter of new information from Beijing this week is hard to interpret; year-on-year comparisons are tricky thanks to the Chinese new year. But in essence, we have learnt that China now has deflation; that its stimulus package, announced in November, has prompted huge domestic investment; and that both imports and exports have fallen by a quarter over the last year, bringing down the trade deficit.

Stocks in China itself have sold off, with the Shanghai Composite now down about 10 per cent from its recent high. Logic suggests that the fall in the Chinese surplus might help redress global imbalances (excessive Chinese savings combined with excessive US debts). But by reducing China's demand for US securities, it might make it harder for the US to fund its deficit.

This logic does not, however, appear to have moved markets, which instead suggested that investors had a renewed appetite for risk. The dollar did slip a bit, but gold continued its recent decline – having briefly punctured $1,000 per ounce, it has now come back below $900 – while stocks largely held on to Tuesday's gain.

Should US or European stocks have sold off on the Chinese news? Not necessarily. By this week, the S&P 500 had priced in much future bad news.

As of Tuesday, it needed to gain 56.5 per cent just to return to its 200-day moving average, a measure of the long-term trend, which for each day takes the average of the 200 previous days' prices.

The bear market rally from November to early January took the S&P from needing to gain 65.7 per cent to get to this trend line, back up to needing to gain only 26 per cent. So stock prices could rise much more from here without changing the downward trend.

上周，由于来自中国方面的希望，全球股市一度短暂上扬；而本周，它们出现了上涨，不管中国的状况如何。

本周来自于中国政府的新信息无章可循，难以解读。由于农历新年的因素，年度同比比较变得有些棘手。但其实我们已经知道，目前中国已出现了通货紧缩；去年11月份宣布的经济刺激计划，已带动巨大的国内投资；进口和出口都比去年下降了四分之一，使得贸易顺差有所收窄。

中国股市本身也在下跌，上证综合指数较其近期高点回落了10%左右。从逻辑上讲，中国贸易顺差的下降可能有助于纠正全球经济失衡（中国储蓄过多，及美国举债过多）。但是，如果中国对美国证券的需求下降，可能会加大美国为其赤字融资的难度。

然而，这种逻辑似乎并未打动市场。相反，从市场走势看，投资者的风险偏好重新抬头。美元的确略有走低，但金价延续了近期的跌势——在短暂冲破每盎司1000美元关口后，目前已跌至900美元以下——而股市则基本上保住了周二上涨的胜利果实。

美国或欧洲股市应该由于中国的消息而出现抛售吗？不一定。本周，标普500指数(S&P 500)的走势已经消化了大量未来的坏消息。

截至周二，标普500指数需要上涨56.5%，才能回到200日移动平均线之上。200日均线是一个长期趋势指标，其每一天的点位都反映了前200天的平均价格水平。

去年11月至今年1月初的熊市反弹开始前，标普500指数需要上涨65.7%才能回到这个趋势线，但反弹至1月初时，只需上涨26%便可回到200日均线以上。因此，股票价格可能在不改变下行趋势的情况下，在目前基础上出现更大的涨幅。

译者/力文