【英语中国】短线观点：中国不会坐视美元贬值

What is China saying and what is China doing? Are there any differences?

China is sitting on a huge pile of US Treasury bonds – the central issue of the notorious “global imbalances”. So for months, currency and bond markets have hung on every word from Chinese authorities on whether the dollar should in some way be replaced as a global reserve currency.

The latest word from the central bank is that the nation's reserve policy is “always quite stable”. This spurred interest in Treasury bonds yesterday, with 10-year yields almost down to 3.5 per cent only weeks after nearly reaching 4 per cent.

What has China actually done? Federal Reserve figures show that over the past three months, the Treasury debt it holds on behalf of foreign official accounts has risen by $174bn. As Capital Economics suggests, this implies that China has bought more bonds.

China let its currency gain about 20 per cent against the dollar over a period of three years starting in mid-2005. This addressed the imbalances.

But since last July, when Chinese exporters were in severe distress, the renminbi has been pegged tightly against the dollar. Given the dollar's extreme gyrations against other currencies in that time, this can only have been done with an active Chinese decision to tie itself to the dollar.

Market expectations can be gauged from the currency forwards market. Late last year, they forecast that the renminbi would fall once more over the next 12 months. But with hopes high for a China-led recovery, they now imply that the peg against the dollar will stay in force for another year.

That seems right. China has every interest in a long-term debate over making the dollar less central to the world's financial system. But while it sits on huge piles of dollars, it cannot push the dollar down.

中国在说些什么？中国又在做些什么？其言行是否一致？

中国目前坐拥巨额美国国债——这正是众所周知的“全球失衡”问题的核心所在。因此，数月来，中国当局就美元全球储备货币的地位是否应以某种方式被取代的所有言论，外汇与债券市场一句也没有漏掉。

来自中国央行的最新言论是，中国的外汇储备政策“一直相当稳定”。在昨日交易中，这刺激了投资者对于美国国债的兴趣，使得10年期国债收益率几乎跌至3.5%，而仅仅数周前，还几乎触及4%的高点。

那么中国实际上做了些什么呢？美联储的数据显示，过去3个月，中国以外国官方账户持有的美国国债增加了1740亿美元。正如资本经济(Capital Economics)所指出的那样，这意味着中国购买了更多国债。

从2005年中期开始的3年间，中国政府允许人民币兑美元汇率上升了20%左右，以解决失衡问题。

但自去年7月中国出口企业陷入严峻困境以来，人民币再次紧紧钉住美元。考虑到在此期间美元兑其它货币汇率的激烈波动，出现上述情况只可能有一个原因，那就是中国政府决定将人民币与美元绑定的主观意愿。

从外汇远期市场的走势可以判断出市场预期。去年晚些时候，其走势预示着未来一年内人民币将再次贬值。但由于市场对中国引领全球经济复苏寄予厚望，目前外汇远期市场的走势显示，人民币钉住美元的汇率政策还将维持一年的时间。

这看上去是理所当然的。就弱化美元在全球金融体系中的中心地位展开长期讨论，完全符合中国的利益。但只要中国还坐拥巨额美元资产，就不会坐视美元贬值。

译者/何黎