【英语中国】短线观点：中国操纵汇率？

Tim Geithner, awaiting confirmation as the next US Treasury secretary, says China is manipulating its currency. It has such deep foreign reserves that it is capable of doing so. More or less every other leading economy must envy the Chinese.Last year's unprecedented shifts in forex markets have brought many countries to the point of attempting intervention.

Russia announced that the rouble, down 30 per cent since July, will be allowed to drop another 10 per cent against the dollar. Then it will try to bring the devaluation to an end.

The fall in sterling, which has halved in yen terms in the past 18 months, brought complaints from European politicians that the undervalued pound was an unfair advantage for the UK over the eurozone.

As for Japan, the 35 per cent fall in its exports last month was doubtless worsened by the 39 per cent rise in the yen against the dollar over the past 18 months, bringing it to a 14-year high. With western economies booming, Japan's exporters could survive a strong yen. That is no longer the case. Asked on intervention, Japan's finance ministry said it “should always be thinking about doing what may be necessary”.

What of China? The exchange rate of the renminbi to the dollar has barely budged since its appreciation halted last July. Amid market chaos, this was only achieved with careful management or, pejoratively, manipulation. But according to JPMorgan Chase, it has gained 12 per cent on a trade-weighted basis in the past year.

That might suggest that China is deliberately making life hard for US exporters. But with China's exports last month falling 2.8 per cent, it is hard to say that China's goods are being made artificially cheap.

Davos next week and the G7 meeting thereafter will be good venues to thrash all this out. The potential for big market disruptions is very great.

正等待被批准担任美国下届财政部长的蒂姆•盖特纳(Tim Geithner)表示，中国正在操纵汇率。中国拥有庞大的外汇储备，确实有能力这么做。其它主要经济体多多少少都肯定会羡慕中国。去年外汇市场发生了空前的变化，使许多国家走到了试图干预汇率的地步。

俄罗斯宣布，在卢布兑美元汇率自去年7月后已下跌30%的基础上，将再容许卢布贬值10%，之后才设法结束其贬值走势。



英镑下跌，引起了欧洲政客的抱怨，称英镑被低估，使英国对欧元区拥有不公平的优势。以兑日元汇率计算，英镑在过去18个月贬值了一半。

至于日本，其上个月出口下滑35%，无疑因日元升值而变得更加糟糕。在过去18个月，日元兑美元汇率上升39%，至14年高位。在西方经济蒸蒸日上之时，日本出口商承受得起强势日元。但好景不再。在被问及关于干预的想法时，日本财务省表示，它“应始终考虑可能变得必要的行动”。

中国的情况如何？自去年7月人民币停止升值以来，其兑美元汇率几乎毫无变动。在市场一片混乱之中，这只能通过小心谨慎的管理——或者贬意地说，操纵——才做得到。但根据摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)，按贸易加权汇率计算，去年人民币升值了12%。



这或许说明中国正有意使美国出口商日子难过。但鉴于中国上个月出口下滑2.8%，很难说中国在人为地压低商品价格。



下周的达沃斯论坛及之后的G7会议将是商讨这些问题的好场所。市场大混乱的可能性非常高。

译者/岱嵩