【英语中国】中国为全球投资者带来希望？

Try to predict the fate of the world's investments in 2008, and you soon find a world split between two poles. Rather than north and south, however, these poles are in the east and west.The axis of fear revolves around the US, the centre of the crisis in the money markets. Can the world's largest economy somehow navigate a way past the credit crisis, and the continuing deterioration of its housing market?

Hope, meanwhile, revolves around China, and other emerging markets. If these economies have truly found a way to "decouple" their growth and to grow independently, the world can survive a US recession. And specifically, if the Chinese authorities can somehow manage the related problems of domestic inflation and growing international concern about their undervalued currency, the greatest international fears will go unfulfilled.

The arguments about the US economy are well rehearsed. Bears say that the credit squeeze must inevitably affect the supply of credit to consumers. The housing market suffers from a historically high overhang of supply, and prices must inevitably come down further.

Americans had been making increasing use of mortgage equity withdrawal. A collapsing market for homes would, on this argument, have a big impact on consumer spending - certainly greater than had been seen before.

Problems with housing have a time lag, but the steady decline in jobs growth shows, according to the bears, that the economy is sliding towards recession. If the problems in the money market prove to be at the worse end of expectations, and persist well into the year then so much the worse.

Finally, inflation was named by the Fed as the greatest danger facing the economy as recently as August.

High oil prices and the weak dollar would force it higher, and indeed the last inflation numbers of the year made it look as though inflationary pressures were accelerating once more.

This could limit the central bank's ability to fight a recession, and it raises the real risk of stagflation. Bulls point out that the labour market is far more important to the health of the consumer than any other factor, and it is slowing only marginally.

Macro data continue to show that consumers are spending, undaunted. As for the wealth effects from housing, historically the wealth effects from the stock market (still in relative health) have been far more significant.

Perhaps most importantly, the weak dollar should itself come to the rescue of the US. It is making US exports so much more competitive (something that shows up in the improving current account), that the US will be able to muddle through without a recession.

If the US does slip into recession, can the emerging world come to the rescue, as current prices imply?

Here all attention focuses on China, whose economy continues to grow at more than 10 per cent per year. It is no longer dependent on exports to the US, as much of its growth comes from internal investment in infrastructure, and from exporting elsewhere.

But the country's inflation is at its highest level in a decade, and it faces pressure to allow its currency to appreciate - a move that will help counter inflation, but may also put a damper on growth. So far, the Chinese authorities have handled the opening of their economy in a masterly fashion.

But the next stage of opening promises to be particularly difficult.

As for the business of investment, 2008 promises to be very challenging. In 2007, a number of popular trades maintained their momentum. Selling the dollar, buying emerging markets, or betting against subprime were all simple strategies that worked throughout the year.

Now, with markets moving into a new cycle, judgments will get trickier. To take one example: at the beginning of 2007, the ABX index - compiled from the price of protecting against default - implied that virtually no subprime mortgages would default. It was easy to bet that it was wrong. Now it implies that as many as 70 per cent could do so. Working out its future direction from here is more difficult.

As for stocks, the bulls can say we are in the closing stages of a bull market when volatility increases, but returns are still there to be made. Earnings multiples in developed markets are at their lowest in a decade.

Bears can counter that earnings multiples tend to be lower when profits, which are cyclical, are higher - and it looks as though we reached the top of a profits cycle last year. It is hard to make an argument that stocks are compellingly overpriced or underpriced.

We are also, as always, vulnerable to a surprise: 2007, which dawned with many fearing an invasion of Iran might be imminent, was relatively benign in this respect.

The new year may, by contrast, pack a surprise. But viewed from here, the greatest risk concerns the interplay between China and the US. Will the candidates in the most open US presidential race in a generation end up committing the country to protectionist measures against China? And if so, how will China's leaders respond? As far as we can see from here, that seems the most worrying question for the world's investors in 2008.

试图预测2008年全球的投资运势，你很快会发现世界分为两极。不过，这两极不是北与南，而是东与西。

“担忧轴心”围绕美国——本轮货币市场危机的核心——旋转。这个全球最大经济体能否找到某种方式，度过信贷危机及房产市场不断恶化的局面？

与此同时，希望则围绕着中国和其它新兴市场旋转。如果这些经济体确实已找到一种方式，令其增长与美国“脱节”，实现独立增长，那么全球就能够经受住美国陷入经济衰退。尤其是，如果中国当局能够以某种方式，解决国内通胀和国际社会日益担忧人民币币值低估等相关问题，国际社会最大的担忧就将得到解决。

人们有关美国经济的各种论断已耳熟能详。看空人士称，信贷紧缩肯定不可避免地会影响消费信贷供应。房地产市场的供应过剩处于历史高位，价格必定也会进一步下跌。

美国人此前在越来越多地利用自己的房产来获得贷款。按照这种观点，房地产市场的崩盘将对消费支出造成重大影响——其程度肯定超过以往所见。

房地产市场问题存在时滞，但看空人士认为，就业增长率稳步下降，表明美国经济正滑向衰退。如果事实证明，货币市场问题接近人们预期的最坏结果，并且会在今年持续相当长一段时间，那么事情就更加糟糕了。

最后，就在去年8月，美联储(Fed)还把通胀列为美国经济面临的最大危险。

油价高企和美元走软将迫使通胀加剧，事实上通胀数据似乎显示，通胀压力正再次提速。

这可能限制美联储对抗经济衰退的能力，并且加大了滞胀的真实风险。看多人士指出，对消费者的状况而言，劳动力市场远比其它任何因素都更加重要，而目前劳动力市场仅是略有放缓而已。

宏观经济数据继续显示，消费者仍在勇敢地支出。相对于房地产市场的财富效应，股市（仍然相对健康）的财富效应历来重要得多。

或许最重要的是，美元走软本身应该可以拯救美国。美元走软大大提高了美国的出口竞争力（这在日益改善的经常账户中得到了体现），因此美国将能够度过难关而避免陷入衰退。

如果美国真的陷入衰退，那么新兴市场能否像当前价格水平暗示的那样，赶来拯救世界？

在此，所有的注意力都集中在中国身上。中国经济继续以每年10%以上的速度增长。随着中国的增长主要来自内部基础设施投资和对其它市场的出口，中国经济不再依赖对美出口。

但中国的通胀正处于10年来最高水平，中国还面临人民币升值压力——人民币升值将有助于抵制通胀，但可能也会抑制经济增长。到目前为止，中国当局一直在以高超的手法处理经济开放。

但开放承诺的下一阶段可能尤其艰难。

对于投资行业，2008年可能极具挑战性。2007年，许多热门交易保持了火热势头。在整个一年，卖出美元，买进新兴市场股票，抑或做空次贷产品，都是简单可行的交易策略。

现在，随着市场进入新的周期，判断将变得更加困难。举一个例子：在2007年初，ABX指数——由债务违约保险成本编制而成——暗示，实际上没有次级抵押贷款会违约。人们很容易押注这是错误的。现在，该指数暗示，高达70%的次级抵押贷款会违约。由此得出未来走向更加困难。

至于股市，看多人士可能会说，我们处在牛市的末期，波动性有所增加，但仍然可以赚取回报。发达国家股市的市盈率目前处于10年来最低水平。

看空人士可能会回应道，利润具有周期性，当利润高企时，市盈率往往偏低——而去年我们似乎已经达到了一个盈利周期的顶点。现在很难断言，股市被明显高估或者低估了。

与以往一样，我们仍然可能遭遇惊讶：2007年伊始，许多人担心美国很快会袭击伊朗，但结果“惊讶”方面的情况相对良好。

相比之下，2008年可能会充满惊讶。但现在看来，最大的风险在于中国和美国之间的相互作用。在近30年来结局最不确定的美国总统竞选中，候选人最终会让这个国家实行针对中国的保护主义措施吗？如果是这样，中国领导人将如何回应？从目前来看，这似乎是2008年令全球投资者最为担忧的问题。

译者/何黎