【英语中国】中国经济会收缩吗？

It is a commonplace that the bad news on the world's financial system is already reflected in market prices. That in turn implies that markets should be ready to recover. But the world is about to get a lot of news about the Chinese economy. China was once central to hopes that the world could muddle through the credit crisis without a recession. Forecasts remain optimistic. So there is a risk of bad news that the market has not priced in.

As 2009 started there was a broad consensus that the worst that could happen to Chinese economic growth would be a annual growth rate of 6 per cent. This would equal its lowest growth rate, according to official figures, of the past two decades. Much less than this would make it harder for the authorities to keep meeting the aspirations of the population.

However, various measures of economic activity suggest that an outright contraction in the Chinese economy is now at least thinkable. To take one widely discussed example, electricity production in November was down 7.8 per cent from a year earlier. This was the sharpest decline on record. Typically, electricity production has grown at more than 10 per cent.

Chinese imports in December were down 21.3 per cent from a year earlier. Falling commodity prices explain some of this. China may also be cutting its reliance on importing parts from other countries in favour of building and assembling everything itself. This might explain the torrid decline in exports for Korea and Taiwan. But it still looks as though China is suffering a significant fall in domestic demand.

Today sees a pile of Chinese data, including inflation, sales, industrial production and growth, which is expected to come in at 6.8 per cent.

With a Chinese economic contraction now thinkable, that data could stoke the fears that already stalk the financial system.

都说全球金融系统的坏消息已经反映在市场价格上，这进而意味着市场应已准备展开反弹。

可是，世界即将听到许多有关中国经济的消息。中国一度是人们以为世界会安渡信贷危机而不致陷入衰退的希望所在。至今人们的预测仍然乐观。因此就存在市场尚未反映坏消息的风险。

2009年伊始，人们的广泛共识是，中国经济最坏将是年增长6%。根据官方数据，这相当于过去20年的最低增长率。如果实际数据大大低于这一水平，将使中国政府更难继续满足人民的抱负。



可是，经济活动的各方面指标表明，中国经济出现绝对值的收缩如今至少是可以想象的。举一个人们广泛讨论的指标为例，去年11月份发电量较上年同期下降7.8%，创历史最大跌幅。一般而言，中国发电量增长率都在10%以上。



中国12月份进口较上年同期下降21.3%。大宗商品价格下滑是部分原因。此外，中国可能正在降低对从其它国家进口部件的依赖，而支持完全在本国建造和组装。这或许可以解释韩国和台湾出口的快速下滑。但看上去，中国似乎仍经受着内需大幅下滑的困扰。

今日将有一大堆中国数据出炉，包括通胀、销售、工业生产和经济增长，预计增长率为6.8%。

鉴于中国经济萎缩现在是可想象的，这样的数据可能加深已经困扰金融系统的担忧。

译者/岱嵩