【英语中国】纽约比伦敦更能吸引中国公司

In London, they are convinced New York's problem is regulation. In New York, they say the same thing about London.That is where agreement ends. Viewed from London, which has recently started to proclaim itself the financial capital of the world, an American over-reaction to the corporate scandals at the beginning of this decade, such as Enron and WorldCom, created an opportunity. The Sarbanes-Oxley corporate governance legislation which followed it is widely seen as having been too onerous.

Michael Spencer, the head of Icap, a huge London-based interdealer broker, even commented that the City of London "should put up statues of Sarbanes and Oxley in Paternoster Square" in recognition of their efforts.

In New York, the belief is that London's regulation may be too light-touch for its own good. Britain's regulatory system was drastically overhauled by the incoming Labour government only ten years ago.

It is arguably only now facing its first true test, with the fall-out from the credit crisis and the run on Northern Rock this summer has not done much to inspire confidence.

A more dispassionate look at the claims of the two centres suggests that the balance of power is subtler than first appears.

In New York's favour, its stock markets are vastly more valuable than those of London. According to Morgan Stanley Capital International, the most widely used indices for international investors, the US accounts for 41.7 per cent of world market capitalisation. The UK, now the world's second largest market, has 9.9 per cent.

But New York is far less dominant than it used to be. At the end of 2002 - even after the collapse of the tech bubble - the US accounted for as much as 54 per cent of world market capitalisation.

Also, it is New York-based companies that dominate the City of London. But New York must contend with the series of disastrous results that have befallen the big Wall Street firms this year. New York was the epicentre of this year's credit crisis, and that does not help its status as a financial centre.

London can point to its dominance of foreign exchange, which is still growing. According to the Bank of International Settlements, London accounts for 34.1 per cent of foreign exchange volumes this year, compared with 16.6 per cent for New York.

Three years ago it had 31.3 per cent of forex volumes, while New York had 19.2 per cent.

London's backers also point to its success in initial public offerings. The Aim market for smaller companies, which has lighter regulatory requirements, has proved popular with companies raising capital.

According to Dealogic, the LSE and the Aim combined last year raised more money through IPOs ($55.3bn) than the Nasdaq and the NYSE combined ($46.8bn).

But IPOs in London are running at a slower pace this year, according to Dealogic, while the New York exchanges have seen a recovery and are on course to overtake London once more. For the year to November 5, the New York exchanges had raised $45.2bn while Aim and the LSE had raised $44.7bn.

Looking at the world's hottest market, both Nasdaq and the NYSE have attracted more Chinese IPOs than Aim, while the main LSE has attracted none.

Aim's backers also have to contend with the issue of the performance of its stocks. The FTSE-Aim Allshare index has been highly volatile, and is currently trading more than 10 per cent below a peak set last year.

So its popularity with those raising capital may not be matched by popularity with investors. Poor investment performance could in the long run make it harder for Aim-listed companies to raise money.

Finally, there are quality of life issues. London has for years been a popular destination for American bankers. But the strength of sterling could be a problem.

London is fast acquiring a deserved reputation as an expensive place to live. The weak dollar does nothing for New York's power in the world, but if sterling remains strong, and if property prices in central London stay at their current giddy levels, London may become too expensive for its own good.

在伦敦，人们深信纽约的问题在于监管。而在纽约，他们对伦敦也存在同样的说法。这是两个城市的唯一“共识”。伦敦最近已开始宣称自己是全球金融之都，在他们来看，美国对本世纪初的安然(Enron)和世通(WorldCom)等公司丑闻反应过度，为他们创造了机遇。人们普遍认为，丑闻之后制定的公司治理法案《萨班斯-奥克斯利法》(Sarbanes-Oxley)过于繁杂。



总部位于伦敦的大型中介经纪公司Icap的负责人迈克尔•斯宾塞(Michael Spencer)甚至评论说，伦敦金融城“应该在帕特诺斯特广场(Paternoster Square)为萨班斯和奥克斯利塑像”，以纪念他们的贡献。

在纽约，人们相信伦敦的监管可能过于温和，最终对自己不利。10年前才上台的工党政府已对英国监管体制进行了彻底改革。

可以说，这一体制眼下才开始面对首个真正的考验，今夏信贷危机的冲击波和北岩银行(Northern Rock)挤兑事件无利于人们激发对伦敦的信心。

如果以一种更中立的角度来看待上述两个金融中心的宣言，二者力量的天平比乍看起来更为微妙。

对纽约有利的是，其股市市值远远超过了伦敦股市。国际投资者最普遍使用的指数——摩根士丹利资本国际指数(Morgan Stanley Capital International)显示，美国股市市值占全球总市值的41.7 %，而目前排名全球第二的英国股市仅占9.9%。



但是，如今纽约的主导地位远不如以前。2002年底，即便在科技泡沫破裂后，美国股市市值占全球总市值的比重也高达54%。



此外，在伦敦金融城占据主导地位的，是总部位于纽约的公司。但纽约必须应对华尔街大公司今年遭受的一系列灾难性后果。纽约处于今年信贷危机的震中，这无益于其作为金融中心的地位。

伦敦可以举出自己在外汇市场的主导地位，而它的这一地位还在不断增强。国际清算银行(BIS)的数据显示，今年伦敦在全球外汇交易总额中占34.1 %的比重，而纽约占16.6%。

3年前，伦敦在全球外汇交易总额中占31.3 %，而纽约为19.2%。



支持伦敦的人还举出伦敦在首次公开发行(IPO)方面的成功。针对小公司的另项投资市场(AIM)面临的监管要求更加宽松，在计划上市融资的公司中很受青睐。

Dealogic的数据显示，去年，伦敦证交所(LSE)和AIM市场的IPO融资额（553亿美元）高于纳斯达克(Nasdaq)和纽约证交所(NYSE)的总和（468亿美元）。

但Dealogic的数据显示，今年伦敦的IPO速度正在放缓，而纽约却展现出复苏趋势，并有再次超过伦敦的势头。在截至11月5日的一年内，纽约的上市交易已融资452亿美元，而AIM市场和伦敦证交所的融资总额只有447亿美元。

针对全球最火热的市场，纳斯达克和纽约证交所吸引的中国IPO数量均超过了AIM市场，而伦敦证交所主板连一家中国公司都没吸引到。



AIM市场的支持者也不得不面对其股票的表现问题。富时AIM全股指数(FTSE-Aim Allshare)的波动性一直很高，目前，该指数的点位较去年创下的峰值水平下跌超过10%。

因此，尽管AIM市场受到那些希望上市融资的公司青睐，但这与其在投资者中的声望并不匹配。就长期来看，糟糕的投资表现可能加大AIM市场上市公司的融资难度。

最后，还存在生活质量的问题。多年来，伦敦一直是美国银行家青睐的地方。但英镑走强可能是个问题。

伦敦正迅速获得一个生活费用昂贵之地的名声。疲弱的美元无损纽约的全球影响力，但如果英镑持续强势，再加上如果伦敦城中心的房价继续居高不下，伦敦的生活成本可能会变得过于昂贵，对自己不利。



译者/刘彦