【英语中国】中国股市的纳斯达克宿命？

Since August 20, the Hang Seng index has risen 38.5 per cent. Hong Kong is at the confluence of global trends that gained new life in mid-August. But such a rocket-like uplift in a main financial centre stretches credulity.

Underlying everything is the growth of mainland China. In spite of evident concern over inflation, investors are betting that this growth could survive even a downturn in the US.

Then there are flows of money. The new breed of Chinese retail investors had already piled into the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, inflating share prices.

On August 20, China announced a programme allowing individuals to buy securities in Hong Kong. This was a major liberalisation of the previous strict controls. In anticipation, money poured in to Hong Kong. Since then, Chinese stocks on the Hang Seng are up 62 per cent, compared to 38.5 per cent for the Hang Seng and only 22.8 per cent for Shanghai.

So Hong Kong's rally is the result of the diversion of the gush of money from Chinese retail investors. But August 20 was also the first day after the Federal Reserve cut its discount rate. US investors bet that easy money was here again.

Foreign money is nervous of mainland China. According to Emerging Portfolio Fund Research, mainland China equity funds suffered outflows of $2.75bn for the first three quarters: but greater China attracted an inflow of $2.3bn, reflecting the huge popularity of Hong Kong and Taiwan.

All this is, almost certainly, unsustainable. Shanghai A shares are up 268 per cent in the past 16 months. B shares, held by foreigners, are up 324 per cent. The Nasdaq, in the 16-month rally before its crash in 2000, was up 261 per cent.

Nasdaq companies have grown since, but their share prices are still far below their peak. Even if China grows as its backers hope, it is hard to see its stocks avoiding some such fate.

自从8月20日以来，香港恒生指数(Hang Seng index)已累计上涨38.5%。香港正处于8月中旬获得新生的全球各大趋势的交汇点。然而，对于一个全球主要金融中心而言，如此火箭式上涨令人难以置信。





所有这一切的基础，是中国内地的经济增长。尽管投资者明显对通胀表示担忧，但他们仍认为，中国内地的增长甚至能够经受住美国经济的下滑。



其次是资金的流动。中国内地的新一代散户投资者已涌向上海和深圳的证券交易所，推升了那里的股价。







8月20日，中国宣布了一项计划，将允许个人投资者购买港股。相对于之前的严格资本控制，此举可谓一次重大放开。就像人们预期的那样，资金纷纷涌入香港。此后，恒生H股指数上涨了62%，而恒生指数和上海A股仅分别上涨38.5%和22.8%。





因此，香港股市的上扬是中国散户投资者大量资金转移的结果。不过，8月20日也是美联储(Fed)降息后的第一天。美国投资者认为，廉价资金将再次出现。







外资对中国内地市场感到紧张。新兴投资组合基金研究公司(Emerging Portfolio Fund Research)的数据显示，今年前3个季度，中国内地股票基金流出资金27.5亿美元：但大中华区同期却吸引23亿美元的资金流入，反映出香港和台湾市场得到了投资者的热烈追捧。



这一切几乎肯定无法持久。过去16个月，中国A股累计上涨了268%，B股上涨了324%。纳斯达克指数(Nasdaq) 在2000年崩盘之前，曾在16个月内上涨261%。



崩溃之后，纳斯达克上市公司的股价已出现回升，但仍远低于峰值水平。即便中国经济能够如人们希望的那样增长，人们也很难看出中国股市摆脱此类宿命。





译者/梁艳裳