【英语中国】中国股市还没挤掉泡沫

Just as the world's attention was diverted by sell-offs elsewhere, the Shanghai Composite index is back with a record. China's largest domestic stock exchange set a new high yesterday, for the first time since authorities announced a new stamp duty on share transactions two months ago.In the intervening period Shanghai stocks dropped 17 per cent, and took a break after doubling in six months. But, despite initial appearances, China has still not succeeded in its attempt to let air gently out of its stock market bubble.

These two months have, however, seen a sharp reduction in the discrepancies between Chinese A shares, designed for locals, and H shares traded in Hong Kong. At the time the stamp duty was imposed, the Shanghai Composite was up 55 per cent since the March correction, against 25 per cent for the FTSE-Xinhua H shares index. Now, the H shares are up 57 per cent. The discrepancy is largely removed.

Government restrictions prohibit a true arbitrage to exploit the difference in prices between the markets. But the narrowing of the gap suggests investors may be finding ways to bet on a convergence.

Despite this, the Shanghai Composite is still driven chiefly by local retail investors' enthusiasm – worryingly like the Nasdaq in 1999-2000.

For international investors, China remains a small market. The hotspot for international investors is Latin America.

According to Deutsche Bank, Brazil received the most inflows of any emerging country last month, with $900m, followed by Mexico with $541m. China, where fund managers are on average underweight, saw an outflow of $574m.

Brazil's Bovespa index has set nine records since Shanghai's previous high two months ago. It is the country in which emerging markets funds are most overweight, all without a compelling internal growth story. Perhaps world attention should be directed there

就在全世界的注意力都被其它市场的下跌吸引过去的时候，上证综合指数又带着新的纪录卷土重来了。中国最大的国内股票交易所昨天创下历史新高，这是自两个月前中国政府宣布实行新的股票交易印花税以来的首次。

在此期间，上海股市曾下跌了17%，在此前6个月实现翻番后开始休整。但是，中国并未成功地轻轻挤掉股市中的泡沫，尽管最初的迹象是如此。

不过，在这两个月期间，中国在内地交易的A股和在香港上市的H股之间的差价已大幅缩小。在开始实行新印花税税率时，上证综指比3月份市场回调时上涨了55%，而新华富时H股指数(FTSE-Xinhua H)同期涨幅为25%。现在，H股上涨了57%，A股和H股之间的差价基本消失了。



由于政府的限制，投资者无法在两地市场间进行真正的套利，但两地差价的缩小表明，投资者也许找到了押注于两地股价趋同的办法。



尽管如此，上证综指仍主要受到内地散户投资者的热情推动——令人担忧的是，这一情形与1999至2000年间的纳斯达克市场类似。

对国际投资者来说，中国仍是一个小市场。国际投资者的热点现在是拉美股市。

德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)的数据显示，上个月，巴西是新兴国家中资金流入最多的国家，流入金额为9亿美元，墨西哥以5.41亿美元紧随其后。在基金管理公司普遍减仓的中国，上个月资金流出了5.74亿美元。

自上海股市两个月前创新高以来，巴西的Bovespa指数已经创下9次新高。大部分新兴市场基金在这个国家持股比例超出指数，但巴西没有一个令人信服的内部增长故事。或许全世界的注意力应该投向那里。



译者/李功文