【英语中国】短线观点：多元化的中国特色

China appears to have a new definition of “reserve diversification”. It is sitting on a huge pile of dollars – $2,132bn at the latest count.

Diversifying is usually taken to mean selling dollars and buying other currencies – which risks pushing down the value of the rest of the reserves. The most recent data showed China still buying US assets, heavily, in May.

Another hedge against the dollar is to buy hard assets. China has done this. Copper imports last month were up 173 per cent, year on year.

This was buying at bargain prices, but could be viewed as diversification. Either way, the Chinese appetite for metals has fuelled this year's equity rally.

This week, China's premier, Wen Jiabao, said the country should buy more “long-term corporate real assets” rather than short-term financial assets. That implies buying equity in resources companies, and officials suggest this will focus on the emerging world.

This can be read as realpolitik, but it would also have been a good investment strategy this year. Commodities have rebounded, but this is dwarfed by the rebound in commodity-based equities.

According to FTSE All-World indices, basic materials stocks have risen 32.3 per cent this year: by 29.3 per cent in the developed world, 46.7 per cent in advanced emerging markets and a stunning 72.7 per cent in secondary emerging markets (which leaves them at barely half their peak from last year). The Dow Jones-UBS non-energy commodity index is up 9.8 per cent in the same period.

So if there was a potent way to bet on resurgent optimism for a China-centric recovery, sparked in part by Chinese imports, buying emerging market resources stocks seems to have been it.

Can it continue? It can if China maintains its appetite for resources, but that may be asking a lot.

中国对“外汇储备多元化”似乎有了一个新的定义。按最新统计，中国坐拥巨额外汇储备——2.132万亿美元。

多元化通常被认为是抛售美元，购买其它货币——这存在着降低剩余外储价值的风险。最新数据显示，5月份中国仍在购买美国资产，而且是大举买入。

另一个对冲美元风险的做法是购买硬资产。中国已经在这么做了。上个月中国的铜进口量同比增长了173%。

这属于低价买入的行为，但也可视为外汇储备多元化的一种。无论是哪种，中国对金属的需求都助推了今年的股市上涨。

中国总理温家宝本周表示，中国应该购买更多长期的企业实际资产，而不是短期的金融资产。这意味着购买资源企业的股票，而且官员们暗示，购买将侧重于新兴市场。

这可以解读为现实政治的做法，但它也是今年一个良好的投资策略。大宗商品价格反弹了，但其反弹幅度远远比不上大宗商品类股票。

根据富时环球指数(FTSE All-World)，基本材料类股今年整体上涨了32.3%：在发达市场的涨幅为29.3%；在发达新兴市场的涨幅为46.7%；在次级新兴市场的涨幅则是惊人的72.7%（这使得它们接近去年峰值水平的一半）。而在同一时期，道琼斯-瑞银非能源类大宗商品(Dow Jones-UBS non-energy commodity)指数仅上涨了9.8%。

因此，如果说存在一种极其有效的方法，来押注一种苏醒中的乐观情绪，即世界将迎来以中国为中心的复苏（部分受到中国进口的鼓舞），这种方法迄今似乎就是购买新兴市场的资源类股。

这种状况能否继续下去？能，只要中国继续保持对资源的旺盛需求，但那可能是太高的要求。

译者/力文