【英语中国】中国与美元陷阱

With more than two-thirds of China's $2,000bn (€1,500bn, £1,400bn) of reserves in dollar-denominated assets, the US and China are condemned to financial interdependence. Worries about dollar weakness are assumed to lie behind the call in a recent speech by Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the People's Bank Of China, for reform of the international monetary system.

In proposing a super-sovereign reserve currency based on International Monetary Fund special drawing rights, he emphasised the importance of rule-based issuance and manageable supply “disconnected from economic conditions and sovereign interests of any single country”.

The speech was interpreted by US economist Paul Krugman as an admission that China had driven itself into a dollar trap. Its export-led growth model means when trade implodes, as at present, it is importing unemployment. At the same time the accumulation of reserves that results from maintaining an undervalued exchange rate leaves it vulnerable to a dollar collapse. And it cannot diversify away from the dollar without bringing that about.

Others, including Fred Bergsten of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a former assistant secretary for international affairs at the US Treasury, say swapping dollar balances for SDRs at the IMF would be of mutual benefit to the US and the owners of substantial dollar reserves. Dollar investors would obtain instant diversification because SDRs are made up of a basket of currencies – the dollar, the euro, the yen and sterling. The US would be spared the risk of unwanted dollars being dumped on the market, prompting a destabilising dollar free-fall.

The US, anxious to preserve the dollar's global role, has rejected Mr Zhou's proposal. But the Group of 20 nations has given SDRs a boost with its recent decision to expand issuance by $250m.

中国近2万亿美元的外汇储备中，逾三分之二为美元资产，因此美国和中国由于其金融上的相互依赖性而受到责难。最近中国央行行长周小川在演讲中呼吁改革国际货币制度，对美元疲软的担忧被视作其背后的原因所在。

周小川提议基于国际货币基金组织(IMF)的特别提款权(SDR)创造一种超主权国际储备货币，实施基于规则的发行和可调节的供应总量，并强调了发行和供应“超脱于任何一国的经济状况和利益”的重要性。

美国经济学家保罗•克鲁格曼(Paul Krugman)对此篇演讲的解读是，中国承认自己已跳入了一个美元陷阱。中国的出口导向型增长模式意味着，当全球贸易出现目前这种内爆时，中国就会进口失业。与此同时，维持汇率低估所导致的外汇储备累积，使中国很容易受到美元暴跌的冲击。而中国若想对储备进行多样化调整，降低美元比重，必然会引发美元贬值。

包括彼得森国际经济研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)的弗雷德•伯格斯登(Fred Bergsten)在内的一些其他经济学家表示，将美元结余兑换成IMF的SDR，对美国和持有巨额美元储备的国家是互惠互利的。美元投资者能立刻实现储备货币多样化，因为SDR由一篮子货币组成，其中包括美元、欧元、日元和英镑。而美国则能免受无人问津的美元在市场上遭到抛售、从而导致美元急速贬值、并造成不稳定影响的危险。弗雷德•伯格斯登曾担任美国财政部(Treasury)负责国际事务的部长助理。

急于维持美元全球角色的美国反对周小川的提议。但20国集团(G20)最近增发2500万美元SDR的决定，进一步增强了SDR的地位。

译者/管婧