【英语中国】短线观点：中国挤泡沫

There is no harder trick in the world of finance than to let the air out of a bubble gently. The Chinese authorities are trying to do just this and much is riding on their success.

This week saw the monthly download of financial and economic statistics from China. Attention was grabbed by one figure, the supply of new loans. This dropped from Rmb1,530bn ($197.5bn) in June to Rmb356bn ($52bn) in July.

It is hard to fathom how the loans in a large economy can fall by 77 per cent from one month to the next. But aggregate new lending for the first seven months is 173 per cent above its level for the same period of 2008, so it appears that the government is trying to remove the stimulus before it creates a bubble, without creating a crash.

Is there a bubble in asset prices? Both the property and stock markets show distinct froth. The Shanghai Composite index, the main domestic share index, looks spookily as though it is re-running the six months that ended with the bursting of the first Shanghai bubble in October 2007. After gaining two thirds in five months, it has now dropped 10 per cent in only six trading days.

But if this is a bubble, it is much smaller than the first one. At its peak this time, the Shanghai traded at 3.8 times its book value, barely half the 7.2 book multiple it reached in 2007. If it stops now, so much the better for everyone.

A retreat from Shanghai's highs would probably inhibit the animal spirits behind the rally in global equities. It would follow a fall in shipping rates as embodied in the Baltic Dry index, which has become another popular proxy for global growth.

But that problem is far preferable to the potential fallout if another true bubble forms and then pops. The greater worry is to see whether China can deflate a bubble gently without a big pop.

在金融领域，没有比轻轻挤出泡沫里的空气更困难的事情了。中国正试图这么做，他们能否成功将产生重大影响。

中国本周发布了大量月度金融和经济统计数据。有一个数据抓住了市场的注意力——新增贷款，从6月份的15300亿元人民币减少到7月份的3560亿元。

一个大型经济体的月度贷款降幅居然达到77%，这实在令人难以理解。但今年前7个月，中国新增贷款总额较去年同期增长了173%，如此看来，中国政府正试图在刺激计划引发泡沫之前收手，以免出现泡沫破裂的局面。

中国的资产价格是否存在泡沫？房地产市场和股票市场均显示出明显的泡沫现象。中国内地主要股指上证综合指数看起来有些诡异，仿佛正在重演2007年10月上海股市首个泡沫破裂之前6个月的走势。在5个月内上涨近70%之后，如今上证综指仅用了6个交易日内就跌去10%。

但如果说是一个泡沫的话，那它的规模也远小于第一次。在本轮行情的峰值，上海股市的市净率为3.8倍，仅为2007年7.2倍的一半。如果股指就此止步，那对所有人来说都再好不过。

上海股市回落可能会抑制推动全球股市上涨的动物精神。在此之前，以波罗的海干散货运价指数(BDI)衡量的运费将会走低。（BDI指数已成为又一种流行的全球经济增长指标。）

相比于另一个真正的泡沫形成然后破裂，上述结果更能让人接受。市场更大的担心在于，中国是否能够轻轻地挤压出泡沫中的空气而不会让泡沫突然破裂？

译者/功文