【英语中国】如何理解中国经济增长？

In the far north of China last weekend, thousands of Chinese tourists streamed to Harbin's famous ice festival where they forked out $25 a head to view replicas of the Great Wall and the Forbidden City carved out of gigantic blocks of ice. The spectacle of China's new middle class on holiday was impressive, if hardly scientific, evidence of the vigour of an economy that last year grew by 8.5 per cent as much of the rest of the world crumbled.

This year, the consensus is for China to grow even faster, by at least 9.5 per cent, as exports pick up and record investment continues. Yet there are more than a few dissenters who warn that, like the ice palaces of Harbin, the seemingly solid Chinese economy is sooner or later bound to melt. Are they right?

Nicholas Smith, strategist at MF Global FXA Securities, articulates the sceptical position well. Citing “incandescent money supply growth” and the appearance of bubbles in property and manufacturing capacity, he writes: “Fixed asset investment, at half gross domestic product, is the most of any major economy in modern history and must slow. Consumption is the lowest of any major nation in modern history, and can't cover the shortfall. Trade disputes are smouldering and China won't be permitted to export its excesses. A slowdown seems unavoidable.”

One's head tells you that Mr Smith is right. There is a lot about the nature and composition of Chinese growth to cause unease. Consumption, while growing in double digits according to (unreliable) retail sales figures, remains a lowly 37 per cent of GDP. As incentive schemes are withdrawn, sales of cars and electronics, which zoomed last year, could stall.

In the absence of higher exports – which could be slowed by either a revaluation or foreign protectionism – that would leave investment as the economy's main motor. The concern is this will result in dangerous overcapacity. Abroad, that could provoke trade conflicts as China tries to dump an even greater supply of cheap goods on a world only beginning to recover from a disastrous credit binge. At home, the reckless addition of bridges, ports, airports and steel mills will burden banks with non-performing loans.

There are already signs China's authorities are worried that the unprecedented surge in money supply will cause asset bubbles and inflation. Regulators yesterday ordered banks temporarily to halt lending after loans in the first two weeks of the year surged to an unprecedented Rmb1,100 ($160bn, €114bn, £99bn). At that rate loans would triple from last year's record, which at Rmb9,600bn was already double the level of 2008. Beijing this month started tweaking reserve requirements in an effort to cool things down.

Authorities are right to be concerned. House prices, especially at the luxury end, have leapt after sales of homes in 2008 rose by three-quarters. There are also signs of food and wage inflation. Arthur Kroeber of Dragonomics, a research company, reckons consumer price inflation could be much stronger than expected, reaching as high as 5 per cent by April. If he is right, Chinese authorities may slam on the brakes, even at the risk of putting the economy into a skid.

Intellectually, there is much to suggest that China's economy can't go on like this. But one's gut tells you it can, not least because the Communist party needs it to. Wensheng Peng, head of China research at Barclays Capital, says people have for years been predicting imbalances will lead to catastrophe. Yet nothing has yet knocked the economy decisively off course.

Mr Peng also makes a reasonably convincing case that concerns over high investment and low consumption are overdone. With an urban population of just 47 per cent, China is at roughly the stage of development Japan reached in the 1950s when it was building as if cement were running out. Many Chinese residents heat their homes with gas canisters because there are no pipelines. Some have no sewerage or running water. Much else, beyond such basic needs, can be built. Take the high-speed railway now strung across the nation. Within a few years, it will connect 70-80 per cent of Chinese cities with a population over 500,000. In terms of travel times, the entire country will shrink by three-quarters. Shanghai and Beijing will be five hours apart. There will be potentially enormous productivity gains.

Mr Peng argues that China would do well to build while it can. Because of its one-child policy, from 2015 its population will begin to age. Savings will begin to dwindle as retirees run them down. That will help consumption, which should also benefit from rising wages as the labour market tightens. In other words, the internal imbalances should begin to self-correct.

That is a medium-term story. But even in the shorter term, evidence of rising prices should help allay concerns about a generalised excess capacity. Indeed, it is hard to reconcile simultaneous fears about the Scylla of overcapacity and the Charybdis of inflation. There must be a chance that China will sail – if not smoothly, then at least safely – through the middle of those two monsters.

上上个周末，成千上万名中国游客蜂拥至北方城市哈尔滨著名的冰雪节，每人花上25美元，入场参观用巨型冰砖雕刻而成的长城和故宫。中国新兴中产阶级的度假盛况，以令人印象深刻——虽然说不上科学——的方式证明了中国经济的活力。去年，在世界其它大部分地区都遭受重创之际，中国经济增长了8.7%。

今年，人们的共识是，随着出口回暖，创纪录的投资水平继续保持，中国经济将增长得更快，增幅至少达到9.5%。但持异议者也不在少数。他们警告，就像哈尔滨的冰宫一样，中国经济看似坚固，但迟早会消融。他们说得对吗？

MF Global FXA Securities策略师尼古拉斯•史密斯(Nicholas Smith)清晰地表达了这种怀疑立场。在谈到“白热化的货币供给增长”以及地产与制造业产能出现泡沫时，他写道：“固定资产投资占国内生产总值(GDP)的一半，在现代历史上任何一个主要经济体中都是最高的，必须放缓。而消费水平在现代历史上任何一个主要经济体中都是最低的，无法填补缺口。贸易争端正在酝酿，外界不会允许中国出口其过剩。经济减速似乎在所难免。”

理智告诉我们史密斯是正确的。中国经济增长的性质和结构，有许多令人不安之处。虽然根据（不可靠的）零售数据，消费正以两位数增长，但GDP占比仍然只有区区37%。刺激措施取消后，去年迅猛增长的轿车与电器可能会停滞不前。

如果出口水平无法提高——人民币升值或国外的保护主义都有可能令出口放缓——投资将成为经济的唯一引擎。这一点之所以令人担忧，是因为它将导致产能过剩走向危险地步。在国外，随着中国试图把更多廉价商品供应大量投放到刚刚才开始从信贷狂欢的灾难中复苏的世界上，产能过剩可能引发贸易争端。在国内，盲目无度地兴建桥梁、港口、机场和钢厂，将使银行背上不良贷款的包袱。

已有迹象表明，中国政府正担心货币供应的空前增长将导致资产泡沫和通胀。在今年头两周的贷款额猛增至1.1万亿元人民币（合1600亿美元）的空前水平后，监管层上周已命令各银行暂时停止放贷。按照这个速度，今年贷款额将是去年水平的3倍。而去年9.6万亿元人民币的贷款额已经比2008年翻了一番。本月，北京开始着手调整存款准备金率，以求达到降温效果。

政府确实有理由担心。继2008年房屋销量增长四分之三后，房价急剧上涨，尤其是在高端市场。此外食品和工资也存在通胀迹象。研究机构龙洲经讯(Dragonomics)的葛艺豪(Arthur Kroeber)认为，消费价格通胀可能会比预期的凶猛许多，到4月份将高达5%。如果他的判断准确，届时中国政府可能会猛踩刹车，甚至不惜让经济减速。

从理性上讲，有许多因素表明中国经济无法像这样继续下去。但内心的情感会告诉你说，它可以，尤其是因为共产党需要这样。巴克莱资本(Barclays Capital)中国研究主管彭文生表示，许多年来，人们一直在预测，失衡将会导致大灾难。然而，迄今还没有什么事情使中国经济明确脱轨。

彭文生还提出了一个很有说服力的证据，表明对高投资和低消费的担忧过头了。中国的城市人口只占47%，其目前所处的发展阶段，大致相当于日本上世纪50年代时的水平。当时日本也在大肆建设，好像担心水泥就要用完了似的。中国还有许多家庭在使用液化气罐，没有管道燃气。有些人家没有下水道或者自来水。除了这些基本需求之外，还有其它许多方面可以建设。以如今贯穿全国的高速铁路为例。几年后，高铁将把中国70%至80%人口在50万以上的城市连通起来。全国将缩短四分之三的旅行用时。上海至北京将只需5个小时。生产力有可能得到极大的提高。

彭文生提出，中国会在力所能及的时候很好地进行建设。由于实行独生子女政策，从2015年起，中国的人口将开始老龄化。退休人员会使中国的储蓄率开始下降。这将有助于拉动消费。而随着就业市场吃紧，工资趋于增长，也将有利于增加消费。换句话说，内在失衡应会开始自我纠正。

这是中期的故事。但就算是在较短期内，物价上涨的迹象也应有助于减轻对产能普遍过剩的担忧。的确很难消除同时存在的过剩产能担忧与通胀担忧。但中国肯定有机会在两者之间找到一条通道——即便不是一帆风顺，至少也会安全通过。

译者/何黎