【英语中国】短线观点：中国进出口大增真是好事？

In China we trust. It is China's appetite for other countries' goods that has driven the markets' recovery of the past year. This is also behind the economic recovery various countries have enjoyed.

But the global impact of China's buying is growing controversial.

The weekend brought the news that China's imports hit a fresh record in December, slightly exceeding their peak from the summer of 2008. Chinese exports also rose strongly and are now only 4.4 per cent below their peak.

This should be consistent with what is known as a “risk-on” trade. Ever since China launched its economic stimulus amid the 2008 crisis, it has been a critical driver of world markets. The main asset classes have moved in line with perceptions of risk – when investors feel confident, the dollar sells off, while equities and commodities go up.

This time, the dollar has sold off – following on from poor US employment data last Friday – to its lowest level in almost a month. But US and European stocks enjoyed little boost. Chinese stocks, which rebounded before anyone else and then stalled, remain below their level of last summer.

Why is this? The best explanation is that markets are no longer sure that China's recovery is a “good thing”. China's exports may be crowding out competitors. Note that German and Japanese exports are still far below their peaks. Thus it is not a reflationary force at all.

Meanwhile, its imports are largely of raw materials and basic manufactured goods. That is good for the industrialised economies that serve China (like Taiwan) and commodity exporters (like Brazil). But arguably it is too good, as both these countries have tried to limit inflows of cash.

Growth from China is far preferable to contraction. But now that Chinese buying has recovered just as many had hoped, it does appear that markets in the rest of the world are questioning whether this is what they really want.

我们相信中国。正是中国对他国商品的渴求，拉动了去年市场的复苏。这也是各国经济复苏的推动因素之一。

但中国购买的全球影响却日益引起争议。

中国政府上周末公布，2009年12月，中国进口再创新高，略高于2008年夏季的最高水平。中国出口也增长强劲，目前仅较历史最高水平低4.4%。

这本应与投资者的风险偏好一致。自2008年危机期间出台经济刺激计划以来，中国一直是全球市场的关键推动力量。主要资产类别与人们的风险认知同步波动——当投资者感到有信心时，美元遭到抛售，股票和大宗商品上涨。

而这一次，在美国上周五发布了糟糕的就业数据后，美元遭到抛售，跌至近1个月来的最低水平。但美国和欧洲股市几乎没有上涨。中国股市一度率先反弹，随即陷入停滞，目前仍低于去年夏季的水平。

为什么会这样？最好的解释是，市场不再肯定中国的复苏是一件“好事”。中国的出口或许正在“挤出”竞争对手。我们看到，德国和日本的出口仍远低于其最高水平。因此，这压根算不上复苏动力。

与此同时，中国进口的主要是原材料和基础制成品。对服务于中国的工业经济体（例如台湾）和大宗商品出口国（例如巴西）而言，这是好事。但可能有些好过头了，如今，这两类经济体都在努力限制资金流入。

中国的增长远比萎缩要有益得多。但眼下，尽管正如许多人期望的那样，中国的购买已经复苏，但似乎世界其它地区的市场都在反思，这是否是自己真正想要的结果。

译者/陈云飞