【英语中国】中国在外国投资者眼里更美

There is something to be said for local knowledge. But what if the locals have it wrong?

That is a bet some foreign investors are making on China. With locals fleeing Shanghai stocks -- the Shanghai Composite is down 20% this year -- foreign funds are clamoring to get their hands on highly restricted mainland shares, and paying a premium to do it.

Demand is evident in the price of exchange-traded funds that are listed outside the mainland but mirror the Shanghai market. On Monday, the iShares FTSE/Xinhua A50 China Index ETF was trading at 7.5% above the value of its underlying shares. The fund's average premium since the start of 2009 is 1%.

The premium is a byproduct of Beijing's restrictions on foreign investment. Regulators dole out investment quotas that are managed by investment banks. When demand for the ETFs is higher than the quota available, investors have to pay up. Last week investors poured $288 million into these funds, a Citi analysis of data from fund tracker EPFR shows. That is the most since December 2009.

So what do foreigners know that the locals don't? Outsiders tend to take a longer-term approach to China. Mainland investors are momentum players. The domestic crowd has recently been worried that government attempts to temper growth will overshoot the mark.

It is a common concern among investors at this stage of an economic recovery. But foreigners see a market that has been sulking too long. Chinese stocks began to retreat last August, long before the global market rally ended. Outsiders are looking past the horizon of China's tightening program, betting that the economy will expand at a healthy clip. Plus, valuations are compelling, with Shanghai's shares trading at 14.6 times expected earnings, 17% below the eight-year average, according to Macquarie Research.

Certainly, the outsiders might be overlooking real risks.

But that isn't stopping some fund managers from betting that when things turn around, the extra 7.5% they are paying for exposure to China will be small beans.

本地人的看法有很多值得推崇的地方。不过，假如本地人的看法错了呢？

一些外国投资者押注中国的方式就是与本地人背道而驰的。就在本地人纷纷逃离上海股市之际（上证综合指数今年以来累计跌了20%），外国基金开始吵嚷着涉足严格限制的大陆股市，甚至不惜多花些钱。

在大陆以外上市但能体现上海股市行情的交易所买卖基金的价格就明显反映出需求。周一，安硕A50中国(iShares FTSE/Xinhua A50 China Index ETF)的交易价格较相应股票的价值高出7.5%。自2009年初以来，该基金的平均溢价为1%。

这种溢价是北京方面限制外国投资所产生的一个副产品。监管机构发放少量的投资配额，由投资银行进行管理。当交易所买卖基金的需求比可获得的配额高的时候，投资者就必须出高价。花旗(Citi)对基金追踪公司EPFR的数据研究后显示，上周，投资者向这类基金注入了2.88亿美元。这是2009年12月以来规模最大的。

那么，有什么是外国人知道，而本地人不知道的呢？外国人往往长线投资中国。中国大陆的投资者则是短线投资者。国内的投资者最近一直在担心政府为增长降温的尝试会力度过大。

这是经济复苏的这一阶段投资者普遍会担心的问题。不过，外国人看到的却是一个太长时间都一直疏离的市场。去年8月份，中国股市早在全球股市涨势结束之前就开始下挫了。外国人透过中国的收紧计划看过去，认定中国经济将以健康的步伐扩张。此外，股市的估值很诱人，据麦格理(Macquarie Research)的数据，上海股市预期市盈率为14.6倍，比八年平均值低17%。

当然，外国人或许是忽略了真正的风险。

不过，这并未阻止一些基金经理押注，一旦形势好转，他们为在中国投资付出的7.5%的溢价将只是毛毛雨而已。