【英语中国】年轻创业板凸显中国市场顽疾

China's newest stock exchange, ChiNext, is suffering from old problems in the country's capital markets: overvaluation and speculative fever.

Six months into the experiment of creating a Chinese exchange to woo smaller companies with growth prospects but a short track record, 87 companies have raised $8.5 billion, according to data provider Dealogic. But trading has been erratic and valuations remain sky-high. The problem, critics say, is regulators continue to call the shots for the exchange, rather than ensuring companies meet a set of criteria and then allowing the market to decide their fate.

ChiNext hasn't been immune to weakness in shares across Asia, but companies are still eager to list new shares and investors to buy them. Nine companies have priced IPOs on that market since April 30 and await their trading day. By contrast, Hong Kong has seen a number of IPOs and share offerings, including a $3 billion offer from Swire Properties Ltd., pulled in recent weeks.

Volatility is common on ChiNext. Huayi Brothers Media Corp., the Chinese film company that produces films staring Jackie Chan and Zhang Ziyi, raised $176 million in October and shares more than doubled on its opening day. Investors have been so eager to get in on ChiNext IPOs that companies listing have increased the size of the deals.

Part of the attraction for issuers is the high price/earnings multiples that ChiNext stocks fetch. According to exchange data, the average ChiNext stock trades at 59 times trailing earnings, down from its high this year of more than 100 times earnings but still far above other exchanges, such as the MSCI AC Asia Pacific Ex-Japan index's trailing P/E ratio of 19 and Hong Kong's China-heavy Hang Seng Index's 13.9.

Critics also take aim at what they say is a regulatory system that amounts to cherry-picking. Basically, they say, market regulators choose favored companies for IPOs, giving them the stamp of government backing and limiting new offerings.

All of this encourages speculators and those with special connections to jostle for IPO allotments, familiar problems in China's domestic exchanges. 'The less-than-perfect inauguration of ChiNext should sound an alarm for regulators,' Hu Shuli, a financial journalist and commentator, wrote after the market's launch.

The China Securities Regulatory Commission has said that it expected some volatility on the new exchange, but would try to control risks and keep it manageable. Neither CSRC nor ChiNext responded to requests for comment.

ChiNext's problems are an example of the shortcomings in other Chinese markets, posing problems for both domestic Chinese investors and global investors. Global venture-capital firms and other foreign investors will eventually need stable, functioning public markets in order to exit their investments in Chinese start-ups.

It may be too much to ask from the new board for it to fix problems that have plagued the country's markets since their inception. 'Speculation is a way of life in China,' says Fraser Howie, the co-author of 'Privatizing China.' 'It was never going to be a pure market system because the nature of a Chinese regulator is to be hands-on.'

He says it would probably be unreasonable to expect that regulators would experiment with more market-based pricing mechanisms on a board with less stringent listing criteria.

Mr. Howie sees the development of ChiNext in Shenzhen as an effort to keep the southern Chinese exchange relevant. The Shanghai stock exchange's main board has grown much faster than Shenzhen's, boasting a market capitalization roughly four times higher

The idea for ChiNext is a good one in theory. Small Chinese companies have limited routes to access capital because China's state-owned banks rarely offer them financing. Chinese banks prefer to lend to other state-backed firms because they offer a de facto government guarantee and banks have limited flexibility to raise lending rates to price in extra risk.

Chinese investors are also looking for new options for their savings. Because Chinese investors aren't allowed to freely invest overseas and the retail bond market remains in its infancy, most investors choose between stocks and property.

The short-term winners in ChiNext are well-connected speculators able to get in early on IPOs and entrepreneurs eager to make a quick fortune. The short-term losers will be those buying in at high valuations hoping to sell to the greater fool.

The longer-term losers will be the companies hoping to create a reliable route to raise long-term funding and Chinese investors looking to buy into solid growing companies.

ChinaFotoPress/Zuma Press中国市场的最新股票交易平台创业板，正面临中国资本市场的诸多老问题，即价值高估与投机热。

中国创业板旨在吸引成立时间不长但成长前景良好的小型公司上市。金融数据提供商Dealogic的数据显示，创业板市场开板六个月以来，共计有87家公司募资85亿美元。但创业板交易一直飘忽不定，而且估值极高。评论人士称，这个问题是由于监管层持续为该板交易发号施令，而不是确保上市公司达到一系列标准而后让市场来决定这些公司的命运。

中国创业板并未免受亚洲股市普遍下滑的影响，但不少公司仍急于上市，而投资者也拥跃购买新股。自4月30日以来，已有九家公司已完成创业板上市新股定价，并在等候上市交易。与此形成对照的是，近几周来，香港市场已有大量公司推迟进行IPO及发股计划，包括太古地产有限公司(Swire Properties Limited)金额达30亿美元的募股计划。

高波动性已是中国创业板的家常便饭。屡屡推出成龙及章子怡等大牌明星参演影片的中国电影制片商华谊兄弟传媒股份有限公司(Huayi Brothers Media Corp.)，于去年10月募股1.76亿美元，股价在上市首日翻了一倍有余。投资者在创业板打新股的热情极为高涨，以至于正在进行上市准备的公司增加了IPO的规模。

吸引发行者的原因之一是创业板股票的高市盈率。创业板的交易数据显示，该板股票平均往绩市盈率目前为59倍，虽比其今年100倍以上的市盈率高位有下滑，但仍远高于其它交易市场，如摩根士丹利综合亚太指数（不含日本）（MSCI AC Asia Pacific Index ex Japan）的往绩市盈率为19倍，而内地公司占了很大比重的香港恒生指数市盈率仅为13.9倍。

评论人士还阐述了为何他们认为是监管体系造成了创业板这种独特的局面。他们说，从根本上看，市场监管层挑选看好的公司进行IPO，这就赋予他们以政府支持的意味，同时也限制了新股发行。

所有这些都对投机者及利用特殊关系争抢IPO招股分配造成一种推动，这已是中国国内股市的老弊病了。中国财经记者及评论人胡舒立曾在创业板开板后发表评论说，“创业板并不完美的开幕式，恰为监管当局敲响了警钟”。

证监会说，预计新的创业板会出现一些波动，不过证监会将努力控制风险，把创业板保持在可管理的范围内。证监会和创业板均未回复记者的置评请求。

创业板的问题代表了其他中国市场中存在的不足，给中国国内的投资者和全球投资者都带来了难题。全球风险投资公司和其他外国投资者最终将需要稳定、能正常运转的公开市场，以便退出在中国初创企业中的投资。

要求新的创业板解决中国市场创立以来就存在的问题，这或许是要求过高了。《中国私有化：中国股市内幕》(Privatizing China)一书的作者之一侯伟(Fraser Howie)说，投机在中国是一种生活途径，它永远不会是一个纯粹的市场体系，因为中国监管机构的本质就是要插手。

他说，指望监管机构能够在上市要求较不严格的创业板上尝试更多的基于市场的定价机制，这或许是没有道理的。

侯伟认为，在深圳设立创业板是为了保持深圳证券交易所的参与性。上海证券交易所的主板比深圳发展要快得多，市值比深圳约高出四倍。

创业板的想法理论上讲是好的。由于中国国有银行很少向中国小企业提供融资，这些企业获得资金的途径有限。中资银行更喜欢向其他政府支持的公司放贷，因为这些企业能够提供事实上的政府担保，而银行在提高贷款利率以弥补额外风险上的灵活性有限。

中国投资者正在为自己的存款寻找新的投资选择。因为中国投资者不可以自由投资海外，散户可以投资的债券市场仍处于萌芽状态，大部分投资者的选择不是股票就是房地产。

短期内，创业板的赢家是关系广泛、能够在IPO中抢得先机的投机者以及那些希望一夜暴富的企业家；输家将是那些在高点买进、希望向更傻的人卖出的投资者。

长期来看，输家将是那些希望建立一个可靠的长期筹资途径的企业，以及寻求买进增长强劲的企业股票的中国投资者。